- American and Iranian negotiators have agreed on the framework of a memorandum of understanding for a 60-day ceasefire extension, but the deal still requires final approval from President Donald Trump, US officials have confirmed.
- The agreement, first reported by US media outlet Axios, would bring de-escalation to a conflict that has rattled global energy markets and disrupted shipping lanes since Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz earlier this year.
- Under the draft MoU, the strait would reopen to unrestricted commercial traffic – meaning no tolls and no interference – and Iran would be required to clear all mines it deployed in the waterway within 30 days.
- In turn, the US would proportionally lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports and issue sanctions waivers allowing Tehran to sell oil freely.
- The MoU also includes a formal Iranian commitment not to pursue a nuclear weapon. How to address Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium is expected to be among the first issues on the table during the 60-day negotiating window.
- Iran did not immediately confirm any deal. Vice President JD Vance on Thursday evening confirmed there was a tentative agreement, but said it was unclear if President Donald Trump would approve it. “It’s hard to say exactly when or if the president’s going to sign,” Vance told reporters.
- If approved by leadership in Washington and Tehran, it would amount to the biggest step towards peace since the conflict began on February 28.
- Mediator Pakistan said its foreign minister, Ishaq Dar, would meet U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington on Friday, although the significance of his visit was unclear.
Nuclear issue remains unresolved:
- Among the first issues to be negotiated during the 60-day ceasefire is what will happen to Iran’s highly enriched uranium, the first official said. The Islamic Republic has 440.9 kilograms (972 pounds) of uranium that is enriched up to 60% purity, a short, technical step from weapons-grade levels of 90%, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency.
- Vance said Thursday evening though suggested that negotiators were trying to strike general terms on the highly enriched uranium settled in the tentative agreement, with the specifics to be hammered out in the ensuing talks.
- Vance said the continued back and forth involved “a couple of issues on the nuclear stuff, the highly enriched stockpile, and also the question of enrichment.”
- Iran has not publicly committed to giving up the stockpile. It is believed to buried under a trio of nuclear sites that were badly damaged by U.S. airstrikes last year.
- Nuclear analysts have said that Iran might consider China or Russia, which have close relations with Tehran, to be a potential acceptable third party to take possession of the enriched uranium. But Trump said Wednesday that he “wouldn’t be comfortable” with such a plan.
- Though Trump and his team said from the start of the conflict that one of their prime objectives was to ensure that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon, Vance framed the war’s accomplishments as something far less definitive.
- “We’re in a position where we could substantially set back their nuclear program, not just during the term of this president but over the long term,” Vance said. “That’s a very very good thing for the American people.”
What’s Inside the Deal
Hormuz Blockade: According to a report by Axios, under the proposed deal, shipping through Hormuz would be unrestricted, with no tolls or harassment; Iran would remove all mines within 30 days, and the United States would lift its naval blockade if commercial traffic resumes.
Iran’s Nuclear Programme: Moreover, the draft deal will include a pledge that the two sides will commit to negotiating the fate of Iran’s enriched uranium and an Iranian commitment not to pursue a nuclear weapon.
- Under the agreement, the Axios and New York Times reported, the first issues both sides will negotiate during the 60-day window will be the disposal of Iran’s stockpile of about 970 pounds of uranium and the regulatory framework for Iranian enrichment. There are reportedly another ten tonnes of nuclear material enriched to lower levels that negotiators would have to deal with.
US Sanctions: The United States will also commit to discussing sanctions relief and the release of Iran’s frozen assets as part of the negotiations. The two sides will also discuss a mechanism to help Iran start receiving goods and humanitarian aid, the Axios report said. However, the NYT report said what’s on paper may not match what the two sides agree to verbally.
- Iran has an estimated $24 billion of its own money frozen in banks abroad, and it has wanted access to up to $20 billion of those assets, the report said.
War in Lebanon: The deal will also have a clause about ending the war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon — an issue on which Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have had at least one tense discussion. Israel has recently stepped up its military offensive against the Iran-backed Hezbollah.
Investment Fund for Iran: But perhaps the most surprising addition to the agreement is a reference to an investment fund for Iran. Quoting an Iranian official, The New York Times reported that the US would agree to setting up a $300 billion “reconstruction programme”. The Iranian official said the money would be promised to Iran in the event of a final agreement being signed.
- US diplomats briefed on the latest draft reportedly called it an international “investment fund”, which the US “would help facilitate in the event of a final deal”. They said plans for such a fund would be further discussed during the negotiation period.
- According to the NYT report, Iranians have proposed that American companies, including major oil and energy corporations, could enter Iran for investments and joint venture deals as part of the deal.